How many affected
Estimate: 150–300 current federal officeholders would likely be affected immediately by the bill’s no‑grandfathering rule (barred from seeking or holding any other federal elected or appointed office after the effective date).
How that estimate breaks down
- House of Representatives: approximately 50–90 Members likely meet the 20‑year lifetime threshold when prior service and partial‑year counting are applied.
- Senate: approximately 30–60 Senators likely meet the 20‑year lifetime threshold under the bill’s counting rules.
- Appointed officials: an estimated 20–100 senior appointees or confirmed officials could meet the single‑office (8 years) or lifetime (20 years) thresholds; this group is the hardest to estimate without agency records.
Why the range is wide
- Distributed data: service records are held across the Clerk of the House, Secretary of the Senate, OPM, and individual agencies.
- Counting rules: the bill treats any portion of a year as a full year and counts acting service, which pushes more people over thresholds than conventional tenure tallies.
- Appointee fluidity: many acting, holdover, or short‑term appointees complicate a snapshot count.