Estimated annual impact: $515 billion in costs — offset by $530 billion in savings and recoveries → Net savings: $15 billion/year

Fiscal Breakdown: Main Street Health Compact

What it replaces:
The Compact replaces the ACA’s insurer-first subsidy model with direct payments to providers, automatic fraud audits, and a public option that costs less and covers more.

Annual Federal Cost Estimate

Category Estimated Cost Offset Mechanism
Direct Provider Payments $280B Reallocation of ACA subsidies + clawbacks from fraud enforcement
Public Option Administration $60B Premium contributions + insurer exit penalties
Mental Health, Dental, Vision, Substance Abuse $90B ACA essential benefit reallocation + provider efficiency bonuses
Long-Term Care & Reproductive Health $70B Medicaid integration + facility audits
Fraud Enforcement & Audit Infrastructure $15B Recovered funds from clawbacks + whistleblower incentives
Total Annual Cost $515B Fully offset by $530B in savings

Annual Savings & Recoveries

Source Estimated Savings Mechanism
ACA Subsidy Elimination $300B Premium tax credits and insurer subsidies repealed
Administrative Waste Reduction $50B Overhead cap + direct-pay model
Fraud Clawbacks & Audit Recovery $40B AI-driven audits + whistleblower incentives
Insurer Exit Penalties $20B Public option absorbs market, insurers pay clawback fees
Efficiency Bonuses & Risk Pool Optimization $20B Outcome-based provider incentives
Total Annual Savings $530B Net savings: $15B/year

Bottom Line

The Compact delivers more care, more coverage, and more accountability—while saving taxpayers $15 billion a year. It’s not just affordable. It’s offensive-proof.